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Opec daily oil production by country1/19/2024 Tasty live content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro. He hosts Macro Money and co-hosts Overtime, Monday-Thursday. Ilya Spivak, tastylive head of global macro, has 15 years of experience in trading strategy, and he specializes in identifying thematic moves in currencies, commodities, interest rates and equities. Economic data flow analysis by Citigroup warns they’re still too optimistic. Meanwhile, market-watchers polled by Bloomberg are on a many-month campaign to cut growth forecasts. Leading purchasing manager index (PMI) data puts the global economy near standstill. If it is only the business cycle that truly matters, all this bodes ill for oil prices. Cooling demand thanks to a round of steep interest rate hikes by most major central banks is now having the opposite effect. The upturn in economic growth amid the worldwide reopening after the COVID-19 pandemic echoed in higher transport costs. In fact, shipping prices seem to track global trade volumes, with a lag of about seven months. This speaks to two things: a lack of urgency in Europe, and minimal delivery risk premium. The cost of transit on a Suezmax tanker-the largest vessel able to be cross the eponymous canal fully loaded from the Arabian gulf to the Mediterranean-hardly responded as the guns began to fire in Ukraine and Gaza. Crude oil at risk as the global business cycle turns Meanwhile, skirmishing along key delivery routes has had negligible impact on shipping rates. Ensuring that members maintain a united front has proven elusive. The group has overshot its quota every year since beginning coordinated output cuts nearly a decade ago. OPEC+ has shown itself to be mostly ineffective. An index of global commodity prices excluding energy and WTI have been moving in lockstep, implying that crude oil is taking its cues from broad-based trends in global demand for raw materials. They apparently saw little to inspire sharp price swings.Īs it turns out, market participants cared much more about the cyclical fundamentals of supply and demand than they did about would-be disruptors. This seems to speak to a relatively sanguine disposition from traders. What’s more, the trading range narrowed to the smallest since 2019. The markets reasoned otherwise, and the benchmark WTI crude oil contract is on track to end the year with a loss. Two wars and OPEC output cuts: who cares? Taken together with a treacherous geopolitical backdrop, it isn’t hard to imagine supply disruption fears driving price gains. Now after an attack on Israel by Gaza-based terrorist group Hamas, a war in the Middle East threatens supply from world’s biggest oil-producing region.Īt the same time, Saudi Arabia has led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as the cartel’s oil-producing allies – collectively known as “OPEC+”-have pledged to cut production. Russia put its 11.8% share of global supply in jeopardy when it invaded Ukraine in 2022. To read the breathless headlines, crude oil prices had every reason to skyrocket in 2023.
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